Jockeys and WPR

Question: Why do jockeys not play a part in the rating process?

TRB Response: Simple answer is that the automatic WPR assessment by GTX is kept relatively simple on purpose so that users have the opportunity to extract more value from them compared to others due to their own knowledge and skill. Jockeys would be one area that can apply. Different people have different opinions on the relative difference between jockeys, their importance and how that might apply to a particular scenario. For example, the demands on jockey skills riding an easy leader in a small field from a good draw are different to a MF runner from a wide draw with a short run to the first turn. 

In saying that, the automatic assessments still produce a great result in terms of ranking the field and can be the basis of a good betting strategy.

Question: I understand that the base WPR is determined without jockeys being taken into account. So I guess I was looking for a bit of guidance/information as to how much I should adjust a WPR due to a jockey advantage/disadvantage? Do you have any advice on how others have adjusted WPR for a jockey advantage? Is there any system that is advised - For example; James Macdonald on the horse so increase its WPR by 2 points?

TRB Response:

1. Don't automatically adjust all horses based on their jockey. Consider the difficulty of the ride. A horse that finds the front easily is a much easier challenge than most jockeys can handle, compared to one that needs to find a position from a wide draw, work through traffic, build momentum, time a finishing run etc.

2. Be conservative in your adjustments. Don't allow jockeys to totally override and reshape the assessment of a race. Horse talent and form are always #1.   

3. Jockey changes are more important to consider from a rating perspective than if it's the same jockey riding. A big positive jockey change can be a sign that a horse is expected to improve. In this case it's often best to consider recent form in line with the horse's best form and adjust your base rating, rather than picking a recent run and trying to add a bonus. Ultimately you are trying to forecast the possible performance (range) of a horse. It doesn't have to be a mechanical exercise that involves one figure, plus another, minus another etc. 

Consider the total information available and think more in terms of "Given everything I know and think, what is the range I think this horse could perform at today?"

Question: I'm inquiring about what the correct setting for apprentice allowances is meant to be in the WPR program. At the moment my program (and hence markets) make no adjustment for the apprentice claim. When I manually adjust the amount of weight an apprentice can claim, there's no change to the market. When I go to Setup/ Ratings Extended/ WPR the Allowance function is greyed out, so it can't be manually activated. Is the program meant to ignore apprentice allowances as mine currently does, or do I have a bug in my program?

TRB Response: The reason that apprentice allowance is greyed out in Setup / Ratings Extended is that the WPR ratings you see against each run as well as the GTX-assigned based rating are already adjusted for weight to be carried. So adding anything extra for an apprentice allowance on top would effectively be counting it twice.

When it comes to WPR, you don't need to do any adjustments for weight at all. Every value you see on the screen is already adjusted.

If you have a case where there is no jockey in the early file and you note the ratings.... then a claiming apprentice is added when the jockey file is downloaded, you will see that all of the ratings have adjusted for the value we assign to that claim. A 3kg claim moves ratings +2.4 points.

You can see in the image below that my WPR Rating setup with the Allowance greyed out is the same as yours.